The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has achieved a monumental milestone, reaching its full designed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) on its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) block. This marks a historic first for a single-train refinery of this scale worldwide, positioning Nigeria as a major player in global refining and signaling a transformative shift for Africa's largest economy.
A Historic Milestone for Nigeria and Africa
Announced on February 11-12, 2026, the refinery—Africa's largest and one of the world's most advanced—has successfully optimized its key units after scheduled maintenance and performance testing. According to refinery officials, including MD David Bird, the CDU and MS block (encompassing the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer) are now operating steadily at full nameplate capacity. The facility is undergoing a 72-hour intensive performance test in collaboration with technology partner Honeywell UOP to confirm stability, efficiency, and compliance with global standards.
Phase 2 testing for remaining units is set to begin shortly, paving the way for consistent year-round operations at this level throughout 2026. The refinery has design margins that could support up to 700,000 bpd, though current insurance covers 650,000 bpd.
This achievement comes after the $20 billion facility began ramping up in 2024 and has progressively increased output. During recent festive periods, it supplied 45-50 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS/petrol) daily; now, it can deliver up to 75 million litres of PMS per day—well above Nigeria's estimated domestic consumption of around 50 million litres. Additional outputs include significant volumes of diesel (around 25 million litres daily) and jet fuel (20 million litres).
Economic Impact: Reducing Imports, Saving Forex, and Strengthening the Naira
The full-capacity milestone is expected to drastically reduce Nigeria's dependence on fuel imports, which have historically drained billions in foreign exchange (FX) annually—estimated at up to $10 billion for petrol alone.
By producing fuels to the latest global standards domestically, the refinery promises major public health benefits through cleaner products and substantial economic gains:
Forex relief— Lower dollar demand for imports eases pressure on reserves.
Potential naira appreciation — Billionaire Femi Otedola congratulated Aliko Dangote on X, calling the achievement "remarkable" and predicting the naira could strengthen meaningfully, potentially trading below ₦1,000 to the USD before the end of 2026. He noted that domestic refining will significantly ease FX market pressures, with current rates already showing strength (around ₦1,354 official and ₦1,430-1,440 parallel in mid-February 2026—the strongest in over two years).
Broader growth — Surplus production opens export opportunities, boosts GDP via local value addition, and supports downstream industries.
Experts and analysts view this as a structural shift rather than a short-term boost, with optimism around policy support and inflows further aiding currency stability.
Future Expansion and Beyond Refining
Aliko Dangote isn't stopping at 650,000 bpd. Plans announced in late 2025 include a $12 billion expansion to double capacity to 1.4 million bpd, plus new petrochemical production: 2.4 million tons of polypropylene annually and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene (for detergents). Work on this phase has already begun, aligning with Dangote Group's Vision 2030 for industrial dominance and cleaner energy transitions.
Recent related developments include revised Gas Sale and Purchase Agreements with NNPC subsidiaries to secure supply for expansion, and minor price adjustments at the depot level (e.g., PMS gantry price reductions to around ₦774-₦860 per litre in early February 2026, reflecting competitive market dynamics and operational efficiencies).
Why This Matters
The Dangote Refinery's full-capacity milestone isn't just an engineering triumph—it's a symbol of Nigerian ingenuity, private-sector ambition, and potential economic sovereignty. As one of the youngest and most data-rich refineries globally, it sets new benchmarks for Africa and beyond.
Congratulations to Aliko Dangote and the entire team—this is a proud moment for Nigeria. As Otedola put it: "Nigeria is proud of you."
What do you think this means for everyday Nigerians and the broader economy? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
(Sources: Reuters, Vanguard, Punch, Business Insider Africa, Arise News, Nairametrics, CNBC Africa, and statements from refinery executives and Femi Otedola, as of February 12-13, 2026.)
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